首页> 外文期刊>Italian Journal of Public Health >Realizing the Prospects of the Demographic Dividend in Selected Arab Countries
【24h】

Realizing the Prospects of the Demographic Dividend in Selected Arab Countries

机译:在某些阿拉伯国家实现人口红利的前景

获取原文
           

摘要

Background: For most Arab countries, the coming ten years will reveal a real challenge with their changing age structure. Currently, a demographic window of opportunity is unlocked in many of those countries with the increase in the fraction of population in the working-age. Hence, the study investigates the relation between population growth and dependency ratio as demographic indicators and the per capita growth domestic product (GDP). Methods: A time-series analysis model was developed for Egypt and Morocco versus the Republic of Korea as an economically empowered country that had the same initial conditions in the early sixties. Data exploited are drawn from the World Bank and OECD databases. We adopt an income per capita growth model to analyze the role of demographic factors, mainly working-age share. Results There is a significant relationship between GDP per capita and the proportion of working age population. A significant long-run association between dependency ratio and per capita GDP is confirmed. The reduction of dependency load contributes to GDP per capita growth throughout the study duration by an annual rate of about 9 and 2 percent in Egypt and Morocco, respectively . Conclusion : The decline in the dependency ratio, or alternatively, the raise in the working age population has a favorable impact on economic growth. The paper presents supporting evidence to scale up the effect of age structure alteration and to realize the demographic dividend in the studied countries.
机译:背景:对于大多数阿拉伯国家来说,未来十年将随着年龄结构的变化而面临真正的挑战。当前,随着工作年龄人口比例的增加,许多这些国家的人口机会窗口得以释放。因此,该研究调查了人口增长和作为人口指标的抚养比与人均国内生产总值之间的关系。方法:为埃及和摩洛哥与大韩民国建立了一个时间序列分析模型,这是一个经济上有实力的国家,在60年代初具有相同的初始条件。利用的数据来自世界银行和经合组织的数据库。我们采用人均收入增长模型来分析人口统计学因素(主要是工作年龄份额)的作用。结果人均GDP与劳动年龄人口比例之间存在显着的关系。抚养比与人均GDP之间存在长期的显着联系。在整个研究期间,抚养负担的减少有助于人均GDP的增长,埃及和摩洛哥的年增长率分别约为9%和2%。结论:抚养比率的下降,或者劳动年龄人口的增加,对经济增长产生有利影响。本文提供了支持的证据,以扩大年龄结构改变的影响并实现所研究国家的人口红利。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号