Future Developments in German Fish Market – Integration of Market Expert Knowledge into a Modelling System

摘要

Globally, fish has become more important in human nutrition, thus global consumption is expected to highly increase in the future years. Business-as-usual projections for fish market are limited by availability of reliable data at fish category level that hinders the differentiation in more detail on supply and demand as well as across EU member states. The new fish module in AGMEMOD provides midterm projections for the fish category markets in EU member states. For this, a status-quo simulation to the year 2030 is developed in AGMEMOD. In order to deal with the poor data availability, the model employs expert opinions about the German market, obtained through an elaborate questionnaire. Thus, expertise knowledge provides more detailed and accurate information on the German fish sector that helps to improve the insights in future German market developments. Based on this, AGMEMOD shows somewhat higher production development up to 2030, than in the original projections.