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FUZZY INFERENCE FOR LOSS SEVERITY OF OPERATIONAL RISK QUANTIFICATION

机译:运营风险量化损失严重程度的模糊推理

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To meet the Basel proposal II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk,the statistical methods of estimating operational risk technique have been explored to measure the operational risk losses infinancial institutions. A fuzzy inference approach is proposed which the fuzzy parameter of lognormal distribution function isdiscussed in the distribution of loss severity for operational risk quantification. The distribution of loss severity for operational riskquantification can be described a lognormal distributed by fuzzy parametric statistical inference, in which parameters ischaracterized as a non-negative fuzzy variable. Prior membership function can be estimated using fuzzy maximum entropy rule,and then a fuzzy simulation method can be designed to estimate posterior mean. The paper shows how fuzzy variables can improvepredictive performance. By simulating the operational risk loss of Chinese commercial bank and deriving the regulatory capitalallotted for operational risks by China banking industry, the result shows that economical capital for each business line is in accordwith the bank's asset.
机译:为了满足《巴塞尔协议II》关于操作风险高级度量方法的监管要求,已经探索了估计操作风险技术的统计方法来度量金融机构的操作风险损失。提出了一种模糊推理方法,在损失严重度的分布中讨论对数正态分布函数的模糊参数,以进行操作风险量化。用于操作风险量化的损失严重性分布可以通过模糊参数统计推断描述为对数正态分布,其中参数的特征是非负模糊变量。可以使用模糊最大熵规则来估计先验隶属度函数,然后可以设计一种模糊仿真方法来估计后均值。本文显示了模糊变量如何改善预测性能。通过模拟中国商业银行的经营风险损失,并得出中国银行业为经营风险分配的监管资本,结果表明,每条业务线的经济资本均与银行的资产相符。

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