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A Co-Integration Analysis Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Development in Hebei Province

机译:河北省用电量与经济发展的协整分析

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Electricity is a convenient and clean energy which can provide strong support for the development of all walks of life. The power development should maintain coordination with the regional economic development, in which power development may advance sometimes. Hebei province is a typical resource-based area in China, and its power consumption is closely related to economic development, which makes it important to study the relationship between electricity and economic development in Hebei. In order to select the economic factors affecting electricity demand, the gray correlation analysis is used to analyse the correlation among different factors. And then, a long-term equilibrium model between electricity consumption and economic factors is proposed through co-integration analysis. The analysis result showed that the electricity consumption, GDP, the level of residential consumption, efficiency levels and economic structures have a long-run equilibrium relationship in Hebei Province, in which the economic structure has the strongest impact on the electricity consumption, followed by GDP, energy consumption intensity and the residential consumption level. Currently, the impact of the economic restructuring on electricity demand in Hebei cannot be overlooked. Furthermore, this model can be used to give a reference to Hebei Electric Power Planning.
机译:电力是一种方便,清洁的能源,可以为各行各业的发展提供有力的支持。电力发展应与区域经济发展保持协调,在这种情况下电力发展有时会取得进展。河北省是中国典型的资源型地区,其用电量与经济发展密切相关,因此研究河北省电力与经济发展之间的关系显得尤为重要。为了选择影响电力需求的经济因素,采用灰色关联分析法分析不同因素之间的关联。然后,通过协整分析,提出了电力消耗与经济因素之间的长期均衡模型。分析结果表明,河北省用电量,GDP,居民消费水平,效率水平和经济结构具有长期均衡关系,其中经济结构对用电量的影响最大,其次是GDP。 ,能源消耗强度和居民消费水平。当前,经济结构调整对河北电力需求的影响不容忽视。此外,该模型可为河北省电力规划提供参考。

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