Seasonal Peak Characteristic Comparison Analysis by Hourly Electricity Demand Model

摘要

As driver variables may influence more than one area of electricity demand, knowing typical effect of the variables on certain demand areas is important. Utilities can use the information of managing power systems to meet electricity demand for different areas more effective. Based on the regression analysis approach, this study presents a peak demand characteristics comparison between Japanese residential and commercial areas in seasonal level by composing hourly electricity demand model for each area. Besides, a representative hour for off-peak demands is also analyzed. Similar variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and holidays) are applied to explain peak and off-peak of summer, autumn, winter, and spring in both areas. Results indicate key drivers for peak and off-peak demands are not same in the certain seasons for both areas. Obtained key variables tend to affect stronger peaks and off-peaks for residential than for commercial area in four observed seasons.