Statistical Analysis of Electricity Generation in Nigeria Using Multiple Linear Regression Model and Box-Jenkins’ Autoregressive Model of Order 1

摘要

This study presents statistical analysis of electricity generation in Nigeria using two different statistical models, namely; multiple linear regression model and box-Jenkins’ autoregressive model of order 1. Two climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) were used as the explanatory variables. Data on electricity generation in Nigeria between 2002 and 2014 were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin while Data on rainfall and temperature between 2002 and 2014 were extracted from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) abstract. Test of model fitness and forecasting accuracy were done using generic statistical approach which include coefficient of determination and root mean square error. The prediction accuracy of the two statistical models was compared and the best model was selected. Furthermore, correlation between power generation and the two climatic variables (rainfall and temperature), were carried out and the result reveals that the amount of rainfall has significant and positive relationship with power generation in Nigeria. Specifically, rainfall has correlation value of r = 0.927 with the power generation at probability, p = 0.000 and the relationship was significant at 1% (p&0.01). However, temperature although it is positively correlated, does not significantly affect power generation. Temperature has correlation value of t = 0.136 with power generation at probability, p = 0.658 (p&0.05) and the relationship was significant at 5% (p&0.05). Among the two statistical models, multiple linear regression model was selected as the best model as it gave the highest value of coefficient of determination (rsup2/sup=99.77%) and the least Root Mean Square Error (60.27%).