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A QUASI-LIKELIHOOD APPROACH TO PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR SIMULATABLE STATISTICAL MODELS

机译:可模拟统计模型参数估计的拟似方法

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This paper introduces a parameter estimation method for a general class of statistical models. The method exclusively relies on the possibility to conduct simulations for the construction of interpolation-based metamodels of informative empirical characteristics and some subjectively chosen correlation structure of the underlying spatial random process. In the absence of likelihood functions for such statistical models, which is often the case in stochastic geometric modelling, the idea is to follow a quasi-likelihood (QL) approach to construct an optimal estimating function surrogate based on a set of interpolated summary statistics. Solving these estimating equations one can account for both the random errors due to simulations and the uncertainty about the meta-models. Thus, putting the QL approach to parameter estimation into a stochastic simulation setting the proposed method essentially consists of finding roots to a sequence of approximating quasiscore functions. As a simple demonstrating example, the proposed method is applied to a special parameter estimation problem of a planar Boolean model with discs. Here, the quasi-score function has a half-analytical, numerically tractable representation and allows for the comparison of the model parameter estimates found by the simulation-based method and obtained from solving the exact quasi-score equations.
机译:本文介绍了用于一般类别的统计模型的参数估计方法。该方法仅依赖于进行模拟的可能性,以构建基于插值的经验性信息元模型和潜在的空间随机过程的一些主观选择的相关结构。在没有此类统计模型的似然函数的情况下(通常是随机几何建模中的情况),其想法是遵循一种拟似然(QL)方法,基于一组内插的汇总统计量来构建最佳估计函数替代。解决这些估计方程式,既可以考虑由于模拟引起的随机误差,也可以考虑有关元模型的不确定性。因此,将参数估计的QL方法放入随机仿真设置中,提出的方法本质上包括寻找近似准核心函数序列的根。作为一个简单的演示示例,将所提出的方法应用于带有光盘的平面布尔模型的特殊参数估计问题。此处,准得分函数具有半解析,数值可处理的表示形式,可以比较通过基于模拟的方法找到并通过求解精确的准得分方程式获得的模型参数估计值。

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