Coastal risk assessment and adaptation of the impact of sea-level rise, climate change and hazards: A RS and GIS based approach in Apodi-Mossoró estuary, Northeast Brazil

摘要

The Northeast Brazil is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. The main threats in Apodi-Mossoró estuary that could be connected with sea-level rise and climate change are the flooding of coastal areas, erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbor constructions and hazards. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 1m and a maximum inundation level of 10m. The sócio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures first a worst situation measured by the economic condition in the maximum inundation level and second; a best situation measured by combining the sustainability on ?rst scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on GIS and a modelling approach to erosion, has identi?ed on 22 locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise, climate change and hazards. Results indicate that 15.74% (216.10km2) and 26.43% (362.81km2) of the area will be lost by ?ooding at minimum and maximum inundation levels, respectively. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the residential and recreational areas, agricultural land and the natural ecosystem. Shoreline erosion is -5.38m/yr since 2003 to 2010 and it`s affect 21.48% the total area in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary which is very high vulnerable area. Potential strategies to ameliorate the impact of global climate change through sea level rise and coastal hazards include wetland preservation; beach nourishment at tourist resorts; and the afforestation of dunes. As this coast is planned to become one of the most developed tourist resorts in RN state by 2012, measures such as building regulation, urban growth planning and development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, are recommended for the region.