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Application of VaR Methodology to Risk Management in the Stock Market in Iran

机译:VaR方法论在伊朗股票市场风险管理中的应用

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In this paper, the performance of RiskMetrics model for prediction of 1-day and 10-days value at risk were preceded in three confidence levels of 95%, 97.5% and 99%.The main data are TEDPIX Index that their fluctuations can be indicated market risk of Tehran Stock Exchange. Time series of this index has been applied from 21 March 2001 to 20 March 2010 with the total 2172 observations. As well, for validation of models, Kupiec test and Christoffersen test have been applied. The finding of this paper is that Risk Metrics model are good alternatives in modeling volatility and in estimating VaR. Also the results indicate that in Kupiec test for both periods, the accepting models number are equal, but in Christoffersen test, the results indicate that upon increasing the time period, the accepting models number are decreased.
机译:本文使用RiskMetrics模型预测1天和10天风险值的性能在95%,97.5%和99%的三个置信度之前。主要数据是TEDPIX指数,可以表明其波动幅度德黑兰证券交易所的市场风险。该指数的时间序列自2001年3月21日至2010年3月20日应用,总共观察到2172次。同样,为了验证模型,已使用Kupiec检验和Christoffersen检验。本文的发现是,风险度量模型是波动率建模和VaR估计的良好替代方案。结果还表明,在两个时期的Kupiec检验中,接受模型的数量相等,而在Christoffersen检验中,结果表明,随着时间的延长,接受模型的数量会减少。

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