The Application of Model Life Table Systems in China: Assessment of System Bias and Error

摘要

and projection. Although China is the world's most populous country with approximately a fifth of the world's population, none of the empirical tables from mainland China were used in calibrating the existing models. In this paper, we applied recent three model life table systems with different inputs to China mortality data to investigate whether or not these systems truly reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological patterns and whether or not system biases exist. The resulting residuals show that, in most cases, the male infant mortality rate (1q0), adult mortality rate (45q15) and old age mortality rate (20q60) have a strong bias towards being overestimated and the life expectancy at birth (e0) bias is underestimated. We also give the detailed results for each case. Furthermore, we found that the average relative errors (AREs) for females are more than those for males for e0, 45q15 and 20q60, but for 1q0, males have larger AREs in the Wilmoth and Murray systems. We also found that the urban population has more errors than the rural population in almost all cases. Finally, by comparing the AREs with 10 other countries, we found the errors for China are more than those for other countries in most cases. It is concluded that these existing model life table systems cannot accurately reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution when applied to China on the basis of 5q0.