Risk Factors Causing Variations on Forecasted Construction Cash Flows of Building Projects in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

摘要

The risk factors involved in construction projects make difficulties in attaining an accurate forecast of construction cash flow. Most of construction projects experience large variations on forecasted construction cash flows due to the risk factors involved in these projects. The objective of this research is to analyze and identify the significant risk factors causing variations on forecasted construction cash flows for various work stages/parts of building projects in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Also, the effects of project scheduling and resources price changes were investigated. This paper reports part of an on-going research concerned with modelling the construction cash flows. The study was conducted through questionnaire survey and interview administered on different building contractors and consultants respectively in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. An analysis was carried out using using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) Version 20.0 for the data's obtained from questionnaires whereby the risk factors causing variations on forecasted construction cash flows in building projects were analyzed. The study found ten significant risk factors that cause variations on forecasted construction cash flows for all work stages/parts in building projects in Tanzania. These risk factors are errors in project documents (Bills of Quantities), poor communication among project participants, consultants’ lack of experience and technical skills, different meanings of specifications, unethical practices to consultants, unclarity of clients’ requirements, clients’ lack of financial resources, design errors, poor/incomplete design and incomplete information at tender stage. The identified effects of project scheduling includes change of project value, delay of the projects, poor workmanship of the project, and conflicts between the parties. While the effects of resources price changes includes delay of the projects, poor quality of the projects and termination of the contract by client. The study recommends proper communication among project participants during execution of building projects for minimizing the significant risk factors, and detailed examination of the identified significant risk factors in causing the variations on forecasted construction cash flows should be done using contract documents such as cash flow projections, Bills of Quantities, interim valuations for payments, work programme and site instructions.