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The Effect of Budget Deficit on Current Account Deficit in Ethiopia: Investigating the Twin Deficits Hypothesis

机译:预算赤字对埃塞俄比亚经常账户赤字的影响:调查双赤字假说

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This study investigated the relationship between government budget deficit and current account deficit in Ethiopia using annual data spanning the period 1976-2015. The analysis is based on a vector error correction model. The methodology of the study begins with Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationary tests of the data and the Johansen co-integration rank test that revealed current account, budget deficit, real gross domestic product and real effective exchange rate to be co-integrated with two co-integrated relationship and thus share long-run equilibrium relationships. Empirical result from the vector error correction model (VECM) suggests that budget deficit is negatively related with the current account deficit, though statistically insignificant. Despite the VECM result, the outcome of the Granger causality test reveals the existence of bi-directional causality between current account deficit and government budget deficit at 5% level. Consequently, the major policy implication of this study is adoption of sound economic policies which plays a pivotal role at boosting the internal government revenue and the export sector by taking the macroeconomic realities of the country into account.
机译:本研究使用1976-2015年期间的年度数据调查了埃塞俄比亚政府预算赤字与经常账户赤字之间的关系。该分析基于矢量误差校正模型。该研究的方法从数据的增强Dickey-Fuller固定检验和Johansen协整等级检验开始,该检验揭示了经常帐,预算赤字,实际国内生产总值和实际有效汇率与两个协整合关系,从而分享长期的均衡关系。向量误差校正模型(VECM)的经验结果表明,预算赤字与经常账户赤字负相关,尽管在统计上不重要。尽管有VECM结果,但格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,经常账户赤字和政府预算赤字在5%水平上存在双向因果关系。因此,本研究的主要政策含义是采用合理的经济政策,在考虑到该国宏观经济现实的情况下,在增加政府内部收入和出口部门方面起着关键作用。

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