INFORMATION SYSTEM FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT FROM NATURAL DISASTERS

摘要

In recent years around the world, and in particular in Bulgaria, there is a reported increase in the number and intensity of disasters caused by natural phenomena. An increase is observed in the adverse effects of disasters on social relations, economic growth and sustainable development of the country. The purpose of the paper is to propose a general framework of information system for integrated risk assessment from natural disasters with the help of modern information and communication technologies. Innovative and classical techniques (quantitative and qualitative approaches, deterministic and stochastic methods, intelligent methods as fuzzy logic and neural networks, etc.) are applied in the overall process of the risk assessment (IEC/ISO 31010:2009): risk identification (identification of single and multiple natural disasters), risk analysis (determination of the disaster probability/intensity; interdependence of multiple disasters; exposure; object vulnerabilities; social, ecological and economical consequences) and risk evaluation. The information system is designed on the principle of modules which implement interaction with geographical information system (GIS) and heterogeneous databases containing information about the monitored objects and potential natural disasters in Bulgaria. The information system will use cloud computing and online network for exchange of heterogeneous databases and expertise for the risks from natural disasters. The proposed information system could successfully assist all stakeholders about risk assessment of the monitored objects before, during or after the occurrence of natural disasters. This system could be considered as a unified platform for interdisciplinary research concerning natural disasters.