Study on Diffusion Rule of Mobile SNS Based on Modified BASS Model

摘要

Social Networking Services (SNS) develop rapidly. Aimed at the mobile SNS, the study, on the basis of Rogers?s BASS model, breaks the three assumptions of the BASS model that market potential, imitation coefficient and innovation coefficient are constants throughout the diffusion circle, which are modified to a time-related function. In this way, the BASS model modified in accordance with the diffusion rule of mobile SNS is built and the model is also verified. The results show that the curve-fitting result commendably validates the modified model and the model is suitable for predicting the diffusion of mobile SNS. The study also finds that the diffusion of mobile SNS is primarily determined by imitation coefficient, that is, users exchange, social environment and policy environment have a great influence on diffusion of mobile SNS.