Modeling and Forecasting the Electricity Demand for Major Economic Sectors of Iran

摘要

The demand for electricity has been modeled in major economic sectors, industry and agriculture in this study, Also the demand for electricity has been forecasted in the both sectors until 2011. According to heterogeneity of industries with respect to equipment, products, technologies, processes and energy consumption, they are classified in two general groups of high energy and low energy consuming industries and the demand model has been separately presented for each group. The most important difference between high and low energy consuming industries is to consider the electricity intensity variable which is an index to the level of technology. Other variables of this model are price of industrial electricity, price of the substitute fuels and number of customers. According to the final model, electricity intensity and price of the substitute have positive impact on electricity consumption in this group. The demand model of electricity in low energy consuming industries consist number of the customers, price of electricity and electricity consumption in the last period that the significance of number of the customers variable came to the result in the proposed model. Also demand of electricity in the agricultural sector has been considered as a function of price, number of customers and consumption of the previous period. Results verify the significance of the above variables and it has been found that consumption of energy in the previous period plays a major role in this model.