Study on the Fiscal Budget Deviation and Its Structural Impact Factors

摘要

Based on the background of fiscal budget balance deviation increasing year by year, this paper detects causal relationship between excess revenue and overspend in government finances with the granger causality method, and analyzes the influence of excess revenue to overspend with impulse response function under the VAR model. The result shows that the overrun is caused by excess revenue. To dig deep the structural factors that cause the budget income deviation, from the angle of tax in excess, the paper analyzes contribution to fiscal excess of value-added tax, business tax, personal income tax, enterprise income tax, consumption tax through multiple linear regression models. The results show that Business tax and individual income tax have a significant influence on fiscal budget deviation. The focus of correcting the fiscal budget balance deviation is to control the business tax and individual income tax in excess. The government should comprehensively promote the tax reform on personal income tax and VAT instead of business tax to establish and perfect the system of modern finance.