Characteristics of the Nonoccurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific in August 2014

摘要

This study identified the causes of the nonoccurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs) in August 2014 by examining large-scale environments. First, over the previous 30 years, the TC genesis frequency in August showed an overall statistically significant decline. In the tropical and subtropical western Pacific, the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly index also exhibited an overall increase until recently. Regarding precipitable water and precipitation, an analysis was performed on the difference between the mean values for August 2014 and the mean values for August over the previous 30 years. As a result, while convective activities were suppressed in the tropical and subtropical western Pacific, convective activities were strong in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. This indicates that while the western North Pacific summer monsoon was weakened in August 2014, the East Asian summer monsoon was strengthened. The weakening of the western North Pacific summer monsoon may have made it difficult for TCs to occur. An analysis of 850 hPa and 500 hPa stream flows showed the strengthening of anomalous huge anticyclonic circulations in the tropical and subtropical western Pacific, whereas anomalously cyclonic circulations were reinforced in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. This was associated with the result that the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) showed further westward and southward expansion in August 2014 compared to the climatological mean WNPSH. Therefore, TCs were unlikely to occur in the tropical and subtropical western Pacific, but anomalous cold northerlies and anomalous warm southerlies converged in the Japanese Islands after originating in China’s central region and passing the East China Sea. Therefore, a favorable environment for the occurrence of precipitation had been formed.