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Assessment of Drought Vulnerability and Occurrence Zones in North Central Nigeria

机译:尼日利亚中北部干旱脆弱性和发生区的评估

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Assessment of drought vulnerability and occurrence zones in North Central Nigeria was carried out in this study using standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 12 months’ time scale was computed from long-term rainfall data between 1960 and 2015 obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Abuja. The SPI results were further subjected to Mann-Kendal and Sen’s slope analysis for trend detection. To assess the vulnerability of drought and occurrence zones, the SPI and other geo-spatial techniques were employed to generate drought vulnerability maps for three epochs: 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 respectively. The SPI values were interpolated using Inverse Weighted (IDW) techniques in ArcGIS10.5 to generate the vulnerability maps for the selected model years. The outcome of drought trend and vulnerability maps reveals increasing drought trend dominated by near normal and moderate conditions in Abuja, Ilorin and Lokoja while moderate and severe droughts were observed in Minna and Jos. The study therefore recommends holistic drought monitoring and management strategies in order to mitigate its adverse impact on water resources and rainfall-dependent agriculture.
机译:本研究使用标准化降水指数(SPI)对尼日利亚中北部的干旱脆弱性和发生区进行了评估。根据从尼日利亚气象局(NIMET)阿布贾获得的1960年至2015年的长期降雨数据,计算了12个月的标准降水指数(SPI)。将SPI结果进一步进行了Mann-Kendal和Sen的斜率分析以进行趋势检测。为了评估干旱和发生区的脆弱性,采用SPI和其他地理空间技术生成了三个时期的干旱脆弱性图:分别为2000-2005、2005-2010和2010-2015。使用ArcGIS10.5中的反加权(IDW)技术对SPI值进行插值,以生成选定模型年份的漏洞图。干旱趋势和脆弱性图的结果表明,干旱趋势以阿布贾,伊洛林和洛科贾附近的正常和中度条件为主导,而在明纳和乔斯则观察到中度和重度干旱,因此该研究建议采取整体干旱监测和管理策略,以期减轻其对水资源和依赖降雨的农业的不利影响。

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