Development of artificial intelligence based NO2 forecasting models at Taj Mahal, Agra

摘要

The statistical regression and specific computational intelligence based models are presented in this paper for the forecasting of hourly NO₂ concentrations at a historical monument Taj Mahal, Agra. The model was developed for the purpose of public health oriented air quality forecasting. Last ten–year air pollution data analysis reveals that the concentration of air pollutants increased significantly. It is also observed that the pollution levels are always higher during the months of November at around Taj Mahal, Agra. Therefore, the hourly observed data during November were used in the development of air quality forecasting models for Agra, India. Firstly, multiple linear regression (MLR) was used for building an air quality–forecasting model to forecast the NO₂ concentrations at Agra. Further, a novel approach, based on regression models, principal component analysis (PCA) was analyzed to find the correlations of different predictor variables between meteorology and air pollutants. Then, the significant variables were taken as the input parameters to propose the reliable physical artificial neural network (ANN)-multi layer perceptron model for forecasting of air pollution in Agra. MLR and PCA–ANN models were evaluated through statistical analysis. The correlation coefficients (R) were 0.89 and 0.91 respectively, for PCA–ANN and were 0.69 and 0.89 respectively for MLR in the training and validation periods. Similarly, the values of normalized mean square error (NMSE), index of agreement (IOA) and fractional bias (FB) were in good agreement with the observed values. It was concluded that PCA–ANN model performs better and can be used for forecasting air pollution at Taj Mahal, Agra.