The multimodel ensemble exercise performed within the HTAP project context(Fiore et al., 2009) is used here as an example of how a pre-inspection, diagnosis andselection of an ensemble, can produce more reliable results. The procedureis contrasted with the often-used practice of simply averaging modelsimulations, assuming different models produce independent results, andusing the diversity of simulation as an illusory estimate of modeluncertainty. It is further and more importantly demonstrated how conclusionscan drastically change when future emission scenarios are analysed using anun-inspected ensemble. The HTAP multimodel ensemble analysis is only takenas an example of a widespread and common practice in air quality modelling.
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