Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system

摘要

An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), basedon the impact-pathway chain has been developed to assess the health-relatedeconomic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emissionsources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-makingwith respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system toEurope, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and futurehealth-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe(including both natural and anthropogenic sources), represented by the years2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to thehealth-related external costs from international ship traffic with specialattention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North seas,since special regulatory actions on sulfur emissions, called SECA (sulfuremission control area), have been introduced in these areas. We concludethat, despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, airpollution still constitutes a serious problem for human health. Hence therelated external costs are considerable. The total health-related externalcosts for the whole of Europe are estimated at 803 bn euros yr?1 for the year2000, decreasing to 537 bn euros yr?1 in the year 2020. We estimate the totalnumber of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollutionto be around 680 000 yr?1, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the NorthernHemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costsin Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. Incontrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Seaand the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducingsulfur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatoryinstrument for all international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere, orat least in areas close to Europe, would have a significant positive impacton human health in Europe.