The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of regulation changes in the northern EU area

摘要

An extensive inventory of marine exhaust emissions is presented in thenorthern European emission control area (ECA) in 2009 and 2011. Theemissions of SO_x, NO_x, CO₂, CO and PM_2.5 were evaluatedusing the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). We have combinedthe information on individual vessel characteristics and position reportsgenerated by the automatic identification system (AIS). The emissionlimitations from 2009 to 2011 have had a significant impact on reducing theemissions of both SO_x and PM_2.5. The predicted emissions ofSO_x originated from IMO (International Maritime Organization)-registered marine traffic have been reduced by29%, from 320 kt to 231 kt, in the ECA from 2009 to 2011. Thecorresponding predicted reduction of PM_2.5 emissions was 17%, from72 kt to 61 kt. The highest CO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions in 2011were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the EnglishChannel, near the south-eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines inthe Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea. The changes of emissions and thefinancial costs caused by various regulative actions since 2005 were alsoevaluated, based on the increased direct fuel costs. We also simulated theeffects and direct costs associated with the forthcoming switch tolow-sulfur distillate fuels in 2015. According to the projections for thefuture, there will be a reduction of 87% in SO_x emissions and areduction of 48% in PM_2.5 emissions in 2015, compared with thecorresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the ECA. The correspondingrelative increase in fuel costs for all IMO-registered shipping variedbetween 13% and 69%, depending on the development of the prices offuels and the use of the sulfur scrubber equipment.