Calculation of Life-Time Death Probability due Malignant Tumors Based on a Sampling Survey Area in China

摘要

Purpose: To calculate the probability of one person’s life-time death caused by a malignant tumor andprovide theoretical basis for cancer prevention. Materials and Methods: The probability of one person’s deathcaused by a tumor was calculated by a probability additive formula and based on an abridged life table. Alldata for age-specific mortality were from the third retrospective investigation of death cause in China. Results:The probability of one person’s death caused by malignant tumor was 18.7% calculated by the probabilityadditive formula. On the same way, the life-time death probability caused by lung cancer, gastric cancer, livercancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal and anal cancer were 4.47%, 3.62%, 3.25%, 2.25%, 1.11%, respectively.Conclusions: Malignant tumor is still the main cause of death in one’s life time and the most common causesof cancer death were lung, gastric, liver, esophageal, colorectal and anal cancers. Targeted forms of cancerprevention and treatment strategies should be worked out to improve people’s health and prolong life in China.The probability additive formula is a more scientific and objective method to calculate the probability of oneperson’s life-time death than cumulative death probability .