Use of simulation technique to distinguish between the effect of soil and weather on crop development and growth

摘要

Environmental factors significantly influence the development and growth of plants. The main factors are soil and weather conditions. In real world it is not possible to segregate these influences. Using simulation models there are ways to analyse the effects of the changes of soil characteristics or weather elements separately. This way all the soil characteristics and weather elements can be changed one by one or different combinations of them can be used as input series. In this study real Hungarian soil and weather scenarios were used that are significantly different from one another. Maize and wheat – the two main crops of Hungary – as well as field pea were used. Pea is known as a sensitive crop to weather. 4M-simulation package was used as a modelling tool. Our group at RISSAC based on CERES and CROPGRO models has developed it. The results showed that the weather differences caused more significant changes in yields then soil differences though soils could moderate the effects of the extreme weather scenarios. The measure of reactions is meaningfully different depending on the species and cultivars. Analysis of separated effects of soil and weather factors has not only theoretical and methodological importance, but useful for the practice, too. When new plant species or cultivars are introduced in a country the optimal habitats can be found. The optimal structure for crops (where to seed different crops, and what sequence should be applied) and technology for crops (sawing time, fertilizer application and timing, etc.) can be estimated.