Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

摘要

A nonlinear forecasting method was used topredict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance.The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor usingfour years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infraredimages from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the timeseries was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaoticattractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorologicalmodel ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surfacetemperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding.The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the predictionresults.Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics(mesoscale meteorology; general) – General (new fields)