Monitoring and forecasting of great radiation hazards for spacecraft and aircrafts by online cosmic ray data

摘要

We show that an exact forecast of great radiation hazard in space, inthe magnetosphere, in the atmosphere and on the ground can be made by usinghigh-energy particles (few GeVucleon and higher) whose transportation fromthe Sun is characterized by a much bigger diffusion coefficient than for smalland middle energy particles. Therefore, high energy particles come from theSun much earlier (8-20 min after acceleration and escaping into solarwind) than the main part of smaller energy particles (more than 30-60 minlater), causing radiation hazard for electronics and personal health,as well as spacecraft and aircrafts. We describe here principles of an automaticset of programs that begin with "FEP-Search", used to determine the beginning of a large FEPevent. After a positive signal from "FEP-Search", the following programsstart working: "FEP-Research/Spectrum", and then "FEP-Research/Time of Ejection","FEP-Research /Source" and "FEP-Research/Diffusion", which onlinedetermine properties of FEP generation and propagation. On the basis ofthe obtained information, the next set of programs immediately start to work:"FEP-Forecasting/Spacecrafts", "FEP-Forecasting/Aircrafts","FEP-Forecasting/Ground", which determine the expected differential andintegral fluxes and total fluency for spacecraft on different orbits,aircrafts on different airlines, and on the ground, depending on altitudeand cutoff rigidity. If the level of radiation hazard is expectedto be dangerous for high level technology or/and personal health, the followingprograms will be used "FEP-Alert/Spacecrafts", "FEP-Alert/ Aircrafts","FEP-Alert/Ground".