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Bio-Mimetics of Disaster Anticipation—Learning Experience and Key-Challenges

机译:灾难预测的模拟生物-学习经验和关键挑战

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Simple Summary Starting from 1700 B.C. in the old world and up to recent times in China there is evidence of earthquake prediction based on unusual metrological phenomena and animal behavior. The review tries to explore the credibility and to pin down the nature of geophysical phenomena involved. It appears that the concept of ancient Greek philosophers in that a dry gas, pneuma is correlated with earthquakes, is relevant. It is not the cause of earthquakes, as originally thought, but may be an accompanying phenomenon and occasional precursor. This would explain unusual animal behavior as well as thermal anomalies detected from satellites. Abstract Anomalies in animal behavior and meteorological phenomena before major earthquakes have been reported throughout history. Bio-mimetics or bionics aims at learning disaster anticipation from animals. Since modern science is reluctant to address this problem an effort has been made to track down the knowledge available to ancient natural philosophers. Starting with an archaeologically documented human sacrifice around 1700 B.C. during the Minoan civilization immediately before a large earthquake, which killed the participants, earthquake prediction knowledge throughout antiquity is evaluated. Major practical experience with this phenomenon has been gained from a Chinese earthquake prediction initiative nearly half a century ago. Some quakes, like that of Haicheng, were recognized in advance. However, the destructive Tangshan earthquake was not predicted, which was interpreted as an inherent failure of prediction based on animal phenomena. This is contradicted on the basis of reliable Chinese documentation provided by the responsible earthquake study commission. The Tangshan earthquake was preceded by more than 2,000 reported animal anomalies, some of which were of very dramatic nature. They are discussed here. Any physical phenomenon, which may cause animal unrest, must involve energy turnover before the main earthquake event. The final product, however, of any energy turnover is heat. Satellite based infrared measurements have indeed identified significant thermal anomalies before major earthquakes. One of these cases, occurring during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India, is analyzed together with parallel animal anomalies observed in the Gir national park. It is suggested that the time window is identical and that both phenomena have the same geophysical origin. It therefore remains to be demonstrated that energy can be released locally before major earthquake events. It is shown that by considering appropriate geophysical feedback processes, this is possible for large scale energy conversion phenomena within highly non-linear geophysical mechanisms. With satellite monitored infrared anomalies indicating possible epicenters and local animal and environmental observations immediately initiated, the learning experience towards an understanding of the phenomena involved could be accelerated.
机译:简单概述从公元前1700年开始在旧世界以及直到最近的中国,都有基于异常的计量现象和动物行为进行地震预报的证据。审查试图探索可信度,并确定所涉及地球物理现象的性质。看来,古希腊哲学家的观念是有意义的,因为干气,肺气与地震有关。它不是最初认为的地震原因,但可能是伴随的现象,偶有前兆。这将解释动物的异常行为以及从卫星检测到的热异常。摘要历史上曾报道过大地震前动物行为和气象现象的异常。仿生或仿生学的目的是从动物身上学习灾难的预期。由于现代科学不愿解决这个问题,因此人们努力寻找古代自然哲学家可获得的知识。从考古记录的人类牺牲开始,大约在公元前1700年。在紧接大地震杀死参与者之前的米诺斯文明期间,评估了整个上古时期的地震预测知识。在近半个世纪前的中国地震预报倡议中,已经获得了有关这一现象的主要实践经验。像海城这样的地震,已经得到了事先认可。然而,唐山大地震没有被预测,这被解释为基于动物现象的固有预测失败。根据负责的地震研究委员会提供的可靠的中文文件,这是矛盾的。唐山大地震发生之前,据报道有2000多个动物异常,其中一些异常非常严重。他们在这里讨论。任何可能导致动物动乱的物理现象都必须在地震发生前进行能量转换。但是,任何能量转换的最终产物都是热量。实际上,基于卫星的红外测量已经确定了大地震之前的重大热异常。分析了其中之一,发生在2001年印度古吉拉特邦布杰地震中,并与在吉尔国家公园中观察到的平行动物异常一起进行了分析。建议时间窗口是相同的,并且两种现象都具有相同的地球物理起源。因此,尚有待证明的是,在发生重大地震之前,可以在本地释放能量。结果表明,通过考虑适当的地球物理反馈过程,对于高度非线性的地球物理机制内的大规模能量转换现象,这是可能的。通过卫星监视的红外异常指示可能的震中以及立即开始的本地动物和环境观察,可以加快对所涉及现象的理解的学习经验。

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