Disaster Cost Estimates: FEMA Can Improve Its Learning from Past Experience and Management of Disaster-Related Resources

摘要

Public Law No. 110-28 directed GAO to review how the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) develops its disaster cost estimates. Accordingly, GAO addressed the following questions: (1) What is FEMA's process for developing and refining its cost estimates for any given disaster; (2) From 2000 through 2006, how close have cost estimates been to the actual costs for noncatastrophic (i.e., federal costs under $500 million) natural disasters; (3) What steps has FEMA taken to learn from past experience and improve its management of disaster-related resources and what other opportunities exist. To accomplish this, GAO reviewed relevant FEMA documents and interviewed key officials. GAO also obtained and analyzed disaster cost data and determined that they were sufficiently reliable for the purposes of this review. After a disaster is declared, FEMA staff deployed to a joint field office work with state and local government officials and other relevant parties to develop and refine cost estimates. The overall estimate comprises individual estimates for FEMA's assistance programs plus any related tasks assigned to other federal agencies (mission assignments) and FEMA administrative costs. The methods used to develop these estimates differ depending on program requirements including, in some cases, historical knowledge. FEMA officials told GAO that cost estimates are updated on a continuing basis. Decision makers need accurate information to make informed choices and learn from past experience. FEMA officials stated that by 3 months after a declaration estimates are usually within 10 percent of actual costs--which they defined as reasonable.