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Evaluation of artificial neural networks in foreign exchange forecasting

机译:人工神经网络在外汇预测中的评估

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This study investigates the modeling, description and forecasting of exchange rates of four countries (Great Britain Pound, Japanese Yen, Nigerian Naira and Batswana Pula) using Artificial Neural Network, the objective of this paper is to use ANN to predict the trend of these four currencies. ANN was used in training and learning processes and thereafter the forecast performance was evaluated or measured making use of various loss functions such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute precision error (MAPE) and Theill inequality coefficient (TIC). The loss functions used are good indicator of measuring the forecast performance of these series, the series with the lowest function gave a best forecast performance. Results show that the ANN is a very effective tool for exchange rate forecasting. Classical statistical methods are unable to efficiently handle the prediction of financial time series due to non-linearity, non-stationarity and high degree of noise. Advanced intelligence techniques have been used in many financial markets to forecast future development of different capital markets. Artificial neural network is a well tested method for financial markets analysis.
机译:本研究使用人工神经网络研究了四个国家(英镑,日元,尼日利亚奈拉和巴茨瓦纳普拉)的汇率建模,描述和预测,本文的目的是使用人工神经网络预测这四个国家的趋势货币。在训练和学习过程中使用了人工神经网络,然后利用各种损失函数(例如均方根误差(RMSE),平均绝对误差(MAE),平均绝对误差(MAE),平均绝对精度)来评估或测量预测性能误差(MAPE)和Theill不平等系数(TIC)。所使用的损失函数是衡量这些系列的预测性能的良好指标,函数最低的系列给出了最佳的预测性能。结果表明,人工神经网络是一种非常有效的汇率预测工具。由于非线性,不稳定和高度噪声,传统的统计方法无法有效地处理财务时间序列的预测。在许多金融市场中已经使用了先进的情报技术来预测不同资本市场的未来发展。人工神经网络是一种经过良好测试的金融市场分析方法。

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