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On the Application of Bootstrap Method to Stationary Time Series Process

机译:Bootstrap方法在平稳时间序列过程中的应用

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This article introduces a resampling procedure called the truncated geometric bootstrap method for stationary time series process. This procedure is based on resampling blocks of random length, where the length of each blocks has a truncated geometric distribution and capable of determining the probability p and number of block b. Special attention is given to problems with dependent data, and application with real data was carried out. Autoregressive model was fitted and the choice of order determined by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The normality test was carried out on the residual variance of the fitted model using Jargue-Bera statistics, and the best model was determined based on root mean square error of the forecasting values. The bootstrap method gives a better and a reliable model for predictive purposes. All the models for the different block sizes are good. They preserve and maintain stationary data structure of the process and are reliable for predictive purposes, confirming the efficiency of the proposed method.
机译:本文介绍了一种用于固定时间序列过程的重采样过程,称为截短几何引导方法。该过程基于随机长度的重采样块,其中每个块的长度具有截短的几何分布,并且能够确定概率p和块b的数量。对依赖数据的问题给予了特别关注,并使用实际数据进行了应用。拟合了自回归模型,并由Akaike信息标准(AIC)和贝叶斯信息标准(BIC)确定了顺序的选择。使用Jargue-Bera统计量对拟合模型的残差进行正态性检验,并根据预测值的均方根误差确定最佳模型。引导程序方法为预测目的提供了更好且可靠的模型。适用于不同块大小的所有模型都不错。它们保留并维护过程的固定数据结构,并且对于预测目的是可靠的,从而确认了所提出方法的效率。

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