Trends in Extreme Indices and Seasonal Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature in the Northwest Region of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

摘要

Probably the most important environmental challenge of this century is to adapt to climate change and develop strategies to minimize its effects. This study aims to conduct an investigation to detect changes in temperature and precipitation in the northwest region of Rio Grande do Sul with the use of different general and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs, respectively). Seven distinct locations in the region were considered, for which there were ten different climate projections. Additionally, we investigated the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events using different extreme precipitation indices. These projections indicate an increase of mean annual temperature of almost 3°;C till the end of the century, as well as an increase in annual precipitation. The seasonal analysis has demonstrated that the largest increases of temperature are projected for winter and early spring and do not coincide with the summer months of the main crop cultivation (soybean) in the region. Additionally, it is expected high amounts of rain during these same months. In general, trends in extreme precipitation indices were detected for the RCM projections in most of locations. It can also be concluded that it is possible that the spatial distribution of the impacts of climate change on agriculture will not be uniform.