A Systems Approach to Study the Malaysian Pepper Industry | Science Publications

摘要

> >Malaysian pepper industry is facing supply constraints whichmay affect its future. The system dynamicsmodel provides a framework for understanding the dynamics and feedbackstructure of the Malaysian pepper supply and demand systems. The choice wasmade based on the ability of this model in capturing complexity and feedbackrelationship. The pepper model integrates key elements such as area, production,inventory, price, profitability and demand. The research question is: What arethe likely future trends of pepper supply and demand under the different priceconditions? The situation requires one to seek a methodology that could explainthe complexity of the system and to establish an insight on the interrelationof the key variables. Simulation results indicate that the pepper area isexpected to increase rapidly over the next decades, however production isexpected to grow slowly because of the low productivity and price volatility.