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Research on Quantitative Investment Strategies Based on Deep Learning

机译:基于深度学习的量化投资策略研究

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This paper takes 50 ETF options in the options market with high transaction complexity as the research goal. The Random Forest (RF) model, the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) model, and the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model are used to predict 50 ETF price. Firstly, the original quantitative investment strategy is taken as the research object, and the 15 min trading frequency, which is more in line with the actual trading situation, is used, and then the Delta hedging concept of the options is introduced to control the risk of the quantitative investment strategy, to achieve the 15 min hedging strategy. Secondly, the final transaction price, buy price, highest price, lowest price, volume, historical volatility, and the implied volatility of the time segment marked with 50 ETF are the seven key factors affecting the price of 50 ETF. Then, two different types of LSTM-SVR models, LSTM-SVR I and LSTM-SVR II, are used to predict the final transaction price of the 50 ETF in the next time segment. In LSTM-SVR I model, the output of LSTM and seven key factors are combined as the input of SVR model. In LSTM-SVR II model, the hidden state vectors of LSTM and seven key factors are combined as the inputs of the SVR model. The results of the two LSTM-SVR models are compared with each other, and the better one is applied to the trading strategy. Finally, the benefit of the deep learning-based quantitative investment strategy, the resilience, and the maximum drawdown are used as indicators to judge the pros and cons of the research results. The accuracy and deviations of the LSTM-SVR prediction models are compared with those of the LSTM model and those of the RF model. The experimental results show that the quantitative investment strategy based on deep learning has higher returns than the traditional quantitative investment strategy, the yield curve is more stable, and the anti-fall performance is better.
机译:本文以期权市场中交易复杂度较高的50个ETF期权为研究目标。随机森林(RF)模型,长期短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型和支持向量回归(SVR)模型用于预测50只ETF的价格。首先以原始的定量投资策略为研究对象,并采用与实际交易情况更为吻合的15分钟交易频率,然后引入期权的Delta对冲概念来控制风险。量化投资策略,以实现15分钟的对冲策略。其次,最终交易价格,买入价格,最高价格,最低价格,交易量,历史波动率以及标有50 ETF的时间段的隐含波动率是影响50 ETF价格的七个关键因素。然后,使用两种不同类型的LSTM-SVR模型LSTM-SVR I和LSTM-SVR II来预测下一个时间段内50只ETF的最终交易价格。在LSTM-SVR I模型中,将LSTM的输出和七个关键因素组合为SVR模型的输入。在LSTM-SVR II模型中,LSTM的隐藏状态向量和七个关键因素被组合为SVR模型的输入。两种LSTM-SVR模型的结果相互比较,更好的一种应用于交易策略。最后,基于深度学习的量化投资策略的优势,复原力和最大跌幅被用作判断研究结果的优劣的指标。将LSTM-SVR预测模型的准确性和偏差与LSTM模型和RF模型的准确性和偏差进行比较。实验结果表明,基于深度学习的量化投资策略的收益要高于传统的量化投资策略,收益率曲线更稳定,抗跌落性能更好。

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