A study of the sensitivity of ENSO to the mean climate

摘要

We study the dependence of the simulated ENSO on the meansimulated climate in the HadCM3 GCM and attempt to understand itsrelation with results from intermediate-complexity models (ICMs).Our aim is to bridge an existing gap between results from complexGCMs and from more readily understandable ICMs, and thereby toimprove our process-based prediction skills of the potentialsensitivity of observed ENSO properties (amplitude, frequency andpattern) to climate change.Although there is a suggestion that surface ENSO processes aredominating the response in HadCM3, our work also shows that thecomplex changes in simulated climate can have contrasting effectson the ENSO and the net result may not be robust.