Multiresolution Analysis of the Relationship of Solar Activity, Global Temperatures, and Global Warming

摘要

Sunspot number is an important parameter for presenting the intensity of solar activity. Based on the sunspot number series, which has been replaced by a new improved version since 2015, we confirm that the sunspot number has significant variations at 11-year and 112-year periods. The sunspot number has also increased from 1700 to 2016 with 0.08 annual increments on the basis of wavelet analysis and least-square fitting. We further confirm that global temperatures are remarkable in 22-year and 64-year cycles. The result of wavelet transform coherence (WTC) analysis suggests that solar activity has a positive lag effect on global temperatures in the period band of 22 years with a 3-year lag. However, the linearly increasing global temperature has hampered WTC analysis since 1960. Aiming to solve this problem, we apply wavelet decomposition and cross correlation to determine whether the aforementioned lag effect in the period band of 22 years has a 2-year lag rather than a 3-year lag. We find that the 22-year magnetic field solar cycle plays a greater role in global climate change than the 11-year sunspot cycle. In addition, we notice that the solar activity is not a representation of the driving force of the upward trend of global temperature after the industrial age. The Granger causality test results demonstrate that the phenomenon of the global warming is caused by excessive CO2 emissions.