Pre -Harvest Forecast Models Based On Weather Variable And Weather Indices For Eastern U.P.

摘要

In the present study, attempts have been made to develop models for forecasting rice yield at district level on the basis of weather variables. Weekly data (of 19 meteorological weeks) on seven weather variables over a span of 21 years period (1989-90 to 2009-10) has been used along with the annual rice production data for Faizabad district (eastern UP). Stepwise regression was used to screen out the important weather variables and multiple regression approach was subsequently employed to estimate model parameters. The model –I was evolved as best for yield forecasting out of five model evaluated, R2 and RMSE of this model comes out to be 71.2%, 0.733 respectively followed by model V with R2 and RMSE 51.25% 1.2524 respectively.