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A hesitant group emergency decision making method based on prospect theory

机译:基于前瞻理论的犹豫群体应急决策方法

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Abstract Group emergency decision-making (GEDM) problems have drawn great attention in past few years due to its advantages of dealing with the emergency events (EEs) effectively. Due to the fact that EEs are usually featured by lack of information and time pressure, decision makers (DMs) are often bound rational and their psychological behaviors are very crucial to the GEDM process. However, DM’s psychological behaviors are neglected in current GEDM approaches. The assessments representing the individual wisdom provided by each expert are usually aggregated in the GEDM process. Nevertheless, the aggregation process always implies summarization of data that can result in loss of information. To overcome these limitations pointed out previously, this paper proposes a new GEDM method that considers the DM’s psychological behaviors in the decision process using prospect theory and replaces the aggregation process by a fusion method with hesitant fuzzy set, which keeps the experts’ information as much as possible. A case study is provided to illustrate the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.
机译:摘要团体紧急决策(GEDM)问题由于其有效处理紧急事件(EE)的优势而在过去几年受到了广泛的关注。由于EE通常以缺乏信息和时间压力为特征,因此决策者(DM)通常受理性约束,其心理行为对于GEDM流程至关重要。但是,目前的GEDM方法忽略了DM的心理行为。 GEDM流程通常汇总代表每位专家提供的个人智慧的评估。但是,聚合过程始终意味着对数据进行汇总,这可能导致信息丢失。为了克服先前指出的这些局限性,本文提出了一种新的GEDM方法,该方法使用前景理论考虑决策过程中DM的心理行为,并使用带有犹豫性模糊集的融合方法代替聚集过程,从而使专家的信息量保持尽可能多。尽可能。案例研究表明了该方法的有效性和可行性。

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