Revisiting the Asian Crisis (1997) in the Light of Present Global Recession: A Chaotic Analysis Paradigm

摘要

Asian financial crisis gripped much of Asia beginning in July 1997. Within ten years, entire global economy entered into the present recession that had started around July 2008. Four years after the eruption of the global financial crisis, the world economy was still struggling to recover, actually during 2012, global economic growth has weakened further. In this context, we like to analyze the Foreign Exchange (ForEx) market which observed most hectic activities in this periods. We have selected eight Asian Countries, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. We computed Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) which is the best tool to quantify chaos from ForEx rate to US Dollar data of these countries during the Asian crisis (1997-1999), then during the first three years of global recession (2007-2009) and finally during next three years during ongoing recession (2010-2012). Our purpose is to compare the amount of chaotic behavior the ForEx markets show in these three distinct periods. We find that the ForEx market became more chaotic during global recession than it was in the Asian crisis. We also find, comparing LLEs that global recession is continuing till end of observation, that is December 2012.