Forecasting the human development index and life expectancy in Latin American countries using data mining techniques

摘要

The predictability of epidemiological indicators can help estimate dependent variables, assist in decision-making to support public policies, and explain the scenarios experienced by different countries worldwide. This study aimed to forecast the Human Development Index (HDI) and life expectancy (LE) for Latin American countries for the period of 2015-2020 using data mining techniques. All stages of the process of knowledge discovery in databases were covered. The SMOReg data mining algorithm was used in the models with multivariate time series to make predictions; this algorithm performed the best in the tests developed during the evaluation period. The average HDI and LE for Latin American countries showed an increasing trend in the period evaluated, corresponding to 4.99 ± 3.90% and 2.65 ± 0.06 years, respectively. Multivariate models allow for a greater evaluation of algorithms, thus increasing their accuracy. Data mining techniques have a better predictive quality relative to the most popular technique, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, the predictions suggest that there will be a higher increase in the mean HDI and LE for Latin American countries compared to the mean values for the rest of the world.