Economic Trends and Macroeconomic Management In Indonesia: 1960s-1980s

摘要

Tulisan ini membahas mengenai mekanisme penggerak ekonomi makro di Indonesia selama dua periode yakni periode 1960-1965 yang merupakan tahun-tahun yang berbahaya bagi Indonesia dan periode 1966-1989 yang merupakan tahun-tahun keberuntungan bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Indikator utama ekonomi makro menunjukkan kinerja yang mengesankan selama tahun-tahunter sebut. Penyesuaian dalam ekonomi makro memainkan peranan penting dalam menangani situasi yang kacau yang terjadi pada awal periode 1966-1989 serta goncangan baik internal maupun eksternal. Sistem dan pengawasan keuangan yang buruk serta masalah informasi asimetris, seperti kebijakan industri yang bias, kapitalisme, dan memuncaknya pinjaman cepat yang beresiko. Masalah pasar keuangan dan respon yang kurang tanggap membuat Indonesia rentan terhadap goncangan yang akan berdampak negatif pada sentimen pasar terhadap Negara. Kata Kunci: manajemen makroekonomi, pendapatan nasional, inflasi, money supply, kebijakan fiscal, kebijakan moneter, nilai tukar mata uang. This paper discusses the mechanisms of macro-economic drivers in Indonesia during the two periods; the period 1960-1965 which is a dangerous years for Indonesia and the period 1966-1989 which isa miracle years for the Indonesian economy. The main macroeconomic indicators showed an impressive performance over the years. Adjustments in macroeconomic plays an important role in dealing with the chaotic situation that occurred at the beginning of the period 1966-1989 as well as both internal and external shocks. Poor financial system and poor supervision and asymmetric information problems, such as industrial policy bias, capitalism, and rising up risky loans. Financial market issues and less-responsive responses madeIndonesia vulnerable to shocks that would bring a negative impact on market sentiment against the State. Keyword: macroeconomic management, capital income, inflation, money supply, fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate. REFERENCES Ahmed, Sadiq, and Ajay Chhibber 1989. How Can Indonesia Maintain Creditworthiness and Noninflationary Growth?, World Bank Working Paper 291, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Ahmed, Sadiq, 1989. Indonesia: external shocks, policy response and adjustment performance, World Bank Report IDP 3a, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Ahmed, Sadiq, and Basant K. Kapur, 1990. How Indonesia's Monetary Policy Affects Key Variables', World Bank Working Paper 349, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Ahmed, Sadiq, 1993. Appropriate Macroeconomic Management in Indonesia's Open Economy, World Bank Discussion Paper 91, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Asian Development Bank, 2001. Corporate Governance and Finance in East Asia, ADB Publications, Manila. Azis, Iwan J., 1999. `Exchange rate, capital flows and reform sequencing in Indonesia: policy trend and CGE model application', in J. de Brun and R. Luders (eds.), Macroeconomic Policy and the Exchange Rate, International Centre for Growth, San Francisco, CA. Azis, Iwan J., and ArieKuncoro, 2000. From standard approach to an economy-wide model of total factor productivity, Conference of the Impact of Hi-Tech on the Economy, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, September 11. Barichello, Richard R., and Frank R. Flatters, 1991. ‘Trade policy reform in Indonesia’, in Dwight H. Perkins and Michael Roemer (eds), Reforming Economic Systems in Developing Countries, Harvard University Press, MA.Bernanke, Ben S. and Alan S. Blinder, 1988. `Is it money or credit, or both, or neither? credit, money, and aggregate demand', American Economic Review, 78(2):435-439. Bernanke, Ben S. and Mark Gertler, 1989. `Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations', American Economic Review, 79(1):14-31. Bernanke, Ben S. and Mark Gertler, 1990. `Financial fragility and economic performance', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105(1):87-114. Bernanke, Ben S. and Mark Gertler, 1995. `Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission', Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(9):27-48. Booth, A., 1989. `Indonesia's agricultural development in comparative perspective', World Development, 17(8):1235-1254. Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman, and Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994a.`The capital inflows problem: concepts and issues', Contemporary Economic Policy, 12:54-66. Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman, and Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994b. `Capital inflows to Latin America: the 1970s and 1908s', in Edmar L. Bacha (ed.), Economics in a Changing World: development, trade, and the environment', Mcmillan, London. Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman, and Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. `Inflows to developing countries in the 1990s', Journal of Economic Perpectives, 10(2):123-39. Calvo, Guillermo A., 2001. `Economic policy in stormy waters: financial vulnerability in emerging economies', Journal of Applied Economics, 1:1-15. Campos J. Edgardo and Hilton L. Root, 1996. The Key to the Asian Miracle: making shared growth credible, Brookings Institute, Washington,D.C. Cardoso, Eliana A., and