Simulation Models to Evaluate the Value Creation of the Grass-Roots Participation in the Enhancement of Public Real-Estate Assets with Evidence from Italy

摘要

In recent years, new forms of enhancement of public real-estate assets have been developed in Italy. These are based on initiatives promoted by a citizenry eager to pursue their cultural, creative, and entrepreneurial activities in unused assets. The aim of this paper is to estimate the value generated by these bottom-up enhancement processes and to evaluate their economic feasibility from the perspective of the administration owner of the asset, beside any other considerations concerning local development or social capital improvement. The uncertainty affecting grass-roots participation and the value creation process is relevant. Therefore, the adopted approach combines Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) with dynamic simulation models and the Monte Carlo methodology. The results highlight a significant value creation process: value appraisals appear to be below valuations made before the market downturn of 2008, but higher with respect to the current market values.