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Forecasting Refined Petroleum Products Prices in Ghana

机译:预测加纳成品油价格

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Ghanaian’s demand for refined petroleum products keeps increasing although monthly prices of the product keeps rising. The paper aims to forecast refined petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, kerosene and LPG) future prices trends in Ghana. Employing benchmark techniques, cointegration, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and artificial neural network (ANN) to analyze in-sample (Jan-89 to Oct-14) and out-of-sample (Nov-14 to Dec-30) monthly data of refined petroleum products and socio-economic variables. The in-sample investigation result suggested that averagely refined petroleum products are uniformly priced in Ghana and LPG price is highly adjusted in times of refined petroleum product increment. Out-of-sample results indicates a steadily price surge of refined petroleum products in the future with ANN forecasting technique recording the best forecasting performance value.
机译:加纳对精炼石油产品的需求持续增长,尽管该产品的每月价格不断上涨。本文旨在预测加纳的精炼石油产品(汽油,柴油,煤油和液化石油气)的未来价格趋势。利用基准技术,协整,广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)和人工神经网络(ANN)每月分析样本内(1月89日至10月14日)和样本外(11月14日至12月30日)精炼石油产品和社会经济变量的数据。抽样调查结果表明,加纳平均精炼石油产品的价格统一,而石油气价格则根据精炼石油产品增加的时间进行了高度调整。样本外结果表明,未来的精炼石油产品价格将稳步上涨,而ANN预测技术将记录最佳的预测性能值。

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