Shifts in altitudinal shrublines showcase impacts of climatic change on alpine ecosystems. We detected changing recruitment patterns at the world’s highest juniper (Juniperus pingii var. wilsonii) shrublines, showing a gradual increase from 1600 to 1900, a peak at 1900–1940, and a subsequent decrease toward present. This apparent tipping point in recruitment success coincides with a switch from positive to negative impacts of rising temperatures. Warming-induced drought limitation has likely reduced the recruitment potential of alpine juniper shrubs in recent decades. Continued warming is thus expected to further alter the dynamics of alpine shrublines on the Tibetan Plateau and elsewhere.
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