An application of mathematical models to select the optimal alternative for an integral plan to desertification and erosion control (Chaco Area – Salta Province – Argentina)

摘要

Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is concerned withidentifying the values, uncertainties and other issues relevant in a givendecision, its rationality, and the resulting optimal decision. Thesedecisions are difficult because the complexity of the system or because ofdetermining the optimal situation or behaviour. This work will illustratehow MCDA is applied in practice to a complex problem to resolve such us soilerosion and degradation. Desertification is a global problem and recently ithas been studied in several forums as ONU that literally says:"Desertification has a very high incidence in the environmental and foodsecurity, socioeconomic stability and world sustained development".Desertification is the soil quality loss and one of FAO's most importantpreoccupations as hunger in the world is increasing. Multiple factors areinvolved of diverse nature related to: natural phenomena (water and winderosion), human activities linked to soil and water management, and othersnot related to the former. In the whole world this problem exists, but itseffects and solutions are different. It is necessary to take into accounteconomical, environmental, cultural and sociological criteria. Amulti-criteria model to select among different alternatives to prepare anintegral plan to ameliorate or/and solve this problem in each area has beenelaborated taking in account eight criteria and five alternatives. Six subzones have been established following previous studies and in each one theinitial matrix and weights have been defined to apply on different criteria.Three multicriteria decision methods have been used for the different subzones: ELECTRE, PROMETHEE and AHP. The results show a high level ofconsistency among the three different multicriteria methods despite thecomplexity of the system studied. The methods are fully described for LaEstrella sub zone, indicating election of weights, Initial Matrixes,algorithms used for PROMETHEE, and the Graph of Expert Choice showing theAHP results. A brief schema of the actions recommended for each of the sixdifferent sub zones is discussed.