Finance-growth nexus: Insights from an application of threshold regression model to Malaysia's dual financial system

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to test the growing converging views regarding the destabilizing and growth-halting impact of interest-based debt financial system. The views are as advocated by the followers of Keynes and Hyman Minsky and those of Islam. Islam discourages interest rate based debt financing as it considers it not very conducive to productive activities and human solidarity. Likewise, since the onset of the crisis of 2007/2008, calls by skeptics of mainstream capitalism have been renewed. The paper applies a threshold regression model to Malaysian data and finds that the relationship between growth and financial development is non-linear. A threshold is estimated, after which credit expansion negatively impacts GDP growth. While the post-threshold negative relationship is found to be statistically significant, the estimated positive relationship at lower levels of financial development is insignificant. The findings provide support to the above views and are hoped to guide monetary authorities to better growth-promoting policy-making.