Association between the incidence of varicella and meteorological conditions in Jinan, Eastern China, 2012–2014

摘要

Background Varicella remains an important public health issue in China. In this study we explored the effect of weather conditions on the incidence of varicella in the temperate city of Jinan, Eastern China during 2012–2014 to inform public health prevention and control measures. Methods Data on reported cases of varicella were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System. Meteorological data for the same time period were obtained from the Jinan Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationships between meteorological variables and the incidence of varicella. Given collinearity between average temperature and atmospheric pressure, separate models were constructed: one including average temperature without atmospheric pressure, the other including atmospheric pressure but without average temperature. Both models included relative humidity, wind velocity, rainfall, sunshine, and year as independent variables. Results Annual incidence rates of varicella were 44.47, 53.69, and 46.81 per 100,000 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. Each increase of 100?Pa (hPa) in atmospheric pressure was estimated to be associated with an increase in weekly incidence of 3.35?% (95?% CI?=?2.94–3.67?%), while a 1?°C rise in temperature was associated with a decrease of 3.44?% (95?% CI?=??3.73–3.15?%) in the weekly incidence of varicella. Similarly, a 1?% rise in relative humidity corresponded to a decrease of 0.50?% or 1.00?%, a 1?h rise in sunshine corresponded to an increase of 1.10?% or 0.50?%, and a 1?mm rise in rainfall corresponded to an increase of 0.20?% or 0.30?%, in the weekly incidence of varicella cases, depending on the variable considered in the model. Conclusion Our findings show that weather factors have a significant influence on the incidence of varicella. Meteorological conditions should be considered as important predictors of varicella incidence in Jinan, Eastern China.