Volatility analysis of consumer demand growth in china based on the index of business conditions

摘要

This paper analyzes the volatility of China???s consumer demand since the reform and opening up, especially since 1999, chooses leading and coincident index frommore than 200monthly indicators ofmacroeconomic related to consumption using time-difference correlation analysis and other methods, and builds the business conditions index of China???s consumer demand using synthetical index method. Then analyzes volatility characteristics of China???s consumer demand in detailed, and forecasts the growth rate of our social retailgoods, of urban and rural social retailgoods respectively in 2013.