Disaggregated and integrated model of residential location, activity space and travel mode choice

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to build the disaggregated and integrated model of Residential Location, Activity Space and Travel Mode Choice, to analyze the intrinsic relationships and inherent rules between these three elements, further to provide a basic reference for the resolution of traffic congestion problem which is caused by the unbalance transportation supply and demand. The utility maximization theory, nested logit model and 2013 Beijing travel survey data were used for building the model. The model have two levels, the first one is space choice level, which was used the land use variables, such as residential location and mixed land use; the other is mode choice level, taken the transportation variables, like travel time, travel cost etc. Parameter estimation results shown: (1) the absolute value of t test for each parameter are greater than 1.96. That means each parameters have influence on selection results in 95% confidence level. Model first and second level hit rate are all greater than 81%. Thus it is indicated the model precision is high. (2) The central part of Beijing has a higher degree of mixed land use characteristics. The travel mode choice is closely related with travel space size. It is all concluded that two level nested logit model can reflect the relationship between mode choice and land use very well.