Research on dynamic model of optimal simulation system for urban water resources sustainable utilization based on complex scientific management

摘要

Based on the thinking tools of complex scientific management system and the principles of system dynamics, an optimal system dynamics model for urban water resources sustainable utilization is established. Based on the entropy theory in the optimization model, the integrated weights of the key factors are obtained by using the "structure entropy weight method" combined with subjective valuation method and objective evaluation method; weights and related parameters are substituted into the system, taking the Liangzi Lake District of Hubei Province as an example, the trend of water resources optimization level is simulated under three different programs of traditional urbanization, urban and rural water saving, new urbanization. The research results show that the new urbanization scheme can achieve the best level and get the maximum comprehensive benefits compared with the traditional urbanization and urban and rural water-saving schemes, which is a better plan for water resources development and utilization. This study can be used as a reference for the discussion of new urbanization water resources sustainable utilization optimization decision-making method.