North Korea's choice of a nuclear strategy: a dynamic approach

摘要

This study presents an analytical framework for predicting the conditions under which North Korea would choose a particular nuclear strategy. Based on the assessment of North Korea's strategic environment, which involves its national identity and interests, strategic goals, relations with allies, and military capabilities, the nuclear strategy choice model presented in this study explains how North Korea's beliefs about its relative capabilities vis-á-vis the US and South Korea determine its strategy regarding the employment of nuclear weapons. As such, this study represents a necessary extension of the prior literature, which has focused on static theories concerning North Korea's nuclear strategy. This study concludes by offering policy recommendations for dealing with a nuclear-armed North Korea.